Location

Arab Institute for Leadership Development

Objectives

• o The framework forecasting processo Data collection (Secondary information collection for research and scanning; Primary data collection using interviews and questionnaires, particularly)o Specific technique used in technology forecasts, such as growth curves, substitution curves, road mappingo Baseline future development and its supporto Critical thinking an approach to challenging the assumptions in the Baseline forecasto Alternative future (scenario) development and presentationo Technology commercialization and assessments

Outcomes

o Introduction to framework forecastingo Overall approaches to technology forecastingo Forecasting theory and methodso A theory of changeo Forecast accuracyo Technology performance measureso Integrating judgmental and quantitative forecasts of the expected future o Forecasts based on human judgments and estimateso Identifying the implications forecast for society and/or for a specific enterprise

Course Contents

The course discusses several frameworks and methods of technology foresight, technology assessment and future-oriented technology analysis. The key concepts and historical paths of technology foresight are depicted and critically reflected upon. During the course, participants will analyze selected emerging technology cases. The case analyzes show how strategic futures thinking and innovation practices are connected to technological development, and how different spatial and organizational contexts affect technology emergence